The Black Sea region plays an increasingly substantial role in the world wheat arena. In the past season 2017/18, the Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan) met roughly 35% of the world’s demand for wheat.
The first half of the season has ended, and its export results allow making quite optimistic forecasts. In the first six months, according to UkrAgroConsult’s estimates, the three countries shipped abroad some 39 MMT of wheat (including flour in grain equivalent). This is up 5% year-on-year and 25%more than in the same period in MY 2016/17.
For Ukraine, four out of the five top destinations are distant. The ranking looks as follows: Indonesia, Philippines, and South Korea. Meanwhile, Egypt, Bangladesh, Thailand and India have reduced purchases of Ukrainian grain this season compared with the previous one.
Particularly important is the presence of Indonesia on this list. The country is the world’s second biggest wheat importer after Egypt. Indonesia has been the top buyer of Ukrainian wheat for a second straight season.
The latter half of the current marketing year promises no surprises because the Black Sea region has already realized the lion’s share of its export potential.
More interesting is to look into the next season 2019/20. The market situation is now advantageous for the Black Sea region: more than 80% of winter wheat crops are in good and fair condition.
For 2019/20 season perspectives please see full version of the article that available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” by UkrAgroConsult.
Analytical report "Black Sea Grain" contains detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea region.
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January 2019 features unstable weather with alternating freezes and thaws.