In the May report, the USDA left almost unchanged its estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in MY 2018/19 against the April forecast. The only exception is increases in barley exports from Ukraine and Russia by 400 KMT and 100 KMT, respectively. In the opinion of UkrAgroConsult, this forecast looks somewhat too high in view of sluggish barley exports from these countries in recent months, and it will hardly be fulfilled in the remaining two months.
In addition, the USDA published its first forecast for the 2019/20 season. According to estimates made by USDA analysts, 2019/20 production of major grains in key Black Sea countries will be up 5.7% year-on-year at 197.7 MMT. Black Sea grain exports in MY 2019/20 are estimated at 105.7 MMT that is comparable with the export forecast for MY 2018/19 (105.3 MMT).
Russian production is forecast to increase due to an expected rise in both winter and spring wheat yields