In the July report, the USDA lowered its forecast for world wheat output by 9.4 MMT, to 771.5 MMT, mostly at the expense of the Black Sea region as well as the EU, Australia and Canada.
Following Russian analysts, USDA experts cut their forecast for wheat output in Russia by 3.8 MMT, to the lowest trade estimate of 74.2 MMT. The export forecast was decreased by 2.5 MMT, to 34.5 MMT.
The USDA estimates for wheat production and exports in Ukraine were also reduced – by 1 MMT and 0.5 MMT, respectively. As UkrAgroConsult wrote a month ago, the previous USDA estimate for Ukrainian wheat output at 30 MMT was too high.
The wheat output forecast for Kazakhstan was, on the contrary, raised by 0.2 MMT due to a 300 Th ha upward adjustment in its harvested area.
Apart from the wheat projections, the USDA also decreased its barley production forecasts for Ukraine and Russia, by 0.5 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively.
The forecast for global corn output was increased by 5.9 MMT, to 1105.1 MMT at the expense of higher estimates for the U.S. and Ukraine. In particular, the crop and export forecasts for Ukraine were raised by 1 MMT each, to 34 MMT and 28 MMT, respectively.