Unstable weather conditions continue reducing yield potential of winter crops in Romania. Increased air temperatures in May and June resulted in earlier ripening of wheat. In addition, precipitation rates in June were at least 50-100% above their long-term average all over the country. It was favorable for corn and sunseed, but may cause issues for quality of winter wheat, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts note.
UkrAgroConsult has cut its estimate for Romanian wheat yield in the 2018/19 season. Following steady growth over the past few seasons, the 2018 yield is expected to be 10% below last year’s record.
Taking into account a smaller planted area and a lower average yield, during the ongoing harvesting campaign farmers may obtain five-year average wheat crop.
Because of the crop decrease and expected quality issues, the estimate for 2018/19 export availabilities was also cut to the below Romania’s five-year average.
Though a decrease in exports, 2017/18 season became quite successful for Romanian exporters who managed to supply about 5.5MMT of wheat (UkrAgroConsult estimate) to foreign markets.
Next season wheat export potential will be lower not only due to a drop in wheat production but also due to strong competition with Russia and Ukraine, especially on African markets, UkrAgroConsult notes.
What are the real odds of a rise in Ukrainian wheat exports to this market in MY 2018/19?