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Обновление оценок урожая и экспорта зерна из Болгарии

25 Июль, 2023 в 13:07

Темпы экспорта болгарского зерна в 2022/23 МГ в третьи страны (за пределы ЕС) сократились по сравнению с рекордным прошлым годом, но все равно остались на высоком уровне. Согласно оперативным данным Еврокомиссии, за июль-июнь было экспортировано:

  • пшеницы: 2,98 млн т (-12% от 2021/22 МГ),
  • ячменя: 103 тыс. т (-31%),
  • кукурузы: 693 тыс. т (+9%).

Статистические данные экспорта из Болгарии в страны ЕС за весь сезон пока недоступны. По нашей оценке, с учетом внутриевропейских потоков общий экспорт зерновых в 2022/23 МГ превысит 5,5 млн т (+0,9 млн т от предварительной оценки).

Увеличение оценок вызвано возрастающими темпами отгрузок зерна из Болгарии в последние месяцы, особенно в направлении Алжира и Китая. Если Алжир больше заинтересован в болгарской пшенице, Китай закупает у Болгарии кукурузу. И хотя потребность Китая в импортированной кукурузе начала сокращаться с 2021 года, объемы импорта из Болгарии продолжают расти. Не в последнюю очередь этому поспособствовала блокада украинских морпортов россией.

Согласно июньскому отчету JRC MARS Bulletin, на севере Болгарии наблюдалось некоторое отставание развития посевов озимых зерновых, но уже в начале июля средний по стране NDVI улучшился, хотя отсутствие осадков и высокие температуры (на 2-4 градуса выше нормы) в течение второй декады месяца снова снизили показатель до средних значений. Прогноз на ближайшую неделю также неутешителен – высокие дневные температуры при почти полном отсутствии продуктивных дождей.

Напомним, что этот период критический для опыления кукурузы, для чего нужны дожди, которых, к сожалению, может и не возникнуть. Наша предварительная оценка урожая кукурузы была достаточно консервативна, потому что мы ожидали, что могут возникнуть определенные риски со стороны погоды, поэтому мы сейчас ее оставляем как есть. Возможно, что скоро придется снова ее пересматривать в сторону понижения.

Оценки урожая пшеницы и ячменя повышаем, поскольку при созревании озимых как раз сохранялись благоприятные погодные условия. Сбор этих культур уже в самом разгаре, хотя и наблюдается отставание от прошлогодних темпов, вызванное поздним севом и более поздним развитием из-за прохладной погоды весной.

Обновленные оценки урожая и экспорта зерна из Болгарии в 2023/24 МГ смотрите в полной версии статьи.

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MessagesTimelineExceptionsViews6RouteQueries53Models59SessionRequest
8.2.5PHP Version94.73msRequest Duration3MBMemory UsageGET ru/news/{id}Route
    • Booting (25.54ms)
    • Application (69.09ms)
    • 1 x Application (72.93%)
      69.09ms
      1 x Booting (26.96%)
      25.54ms
      6 templates were rendered
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      GET ru/news/{id}
      middleware
      web, news.access
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      App\Http\Controllers\Frontend\NewsController@show
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      /ru
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      app/Http/Controllers/Frontend/NewsController.php:30-47
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      uac
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        Metadata
        Bindings
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        • 2. 
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        • 4. Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)
        • 5. XsMjGZzMW0x7RE2dVp1Bxa7rDitZ0XVlbHNkXvAe
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        Metadata
        Bindings
        • 0. XsMjGZzMW0x7RE2dVp1Bxa7rDitZ0XVlbHNkXvAe
        Hints
        • Use SELECT * only if you need all columns from table
        • LIMIT without ORDER BY causes non-deterministic results, depending on the query execution plan
      App\Models\UacSetting
      3
      App\Models\Page
      25
      App\Models\PagesVariablesTranslate
      12
      App\Models\PagesVariable
      12
      App\Models\NewsTranslate
      3
      App\Models\News
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      _flash
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      PHPDEBUGBAR_STACK_DATA
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      status_text
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      html
      content_type
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      request_request
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  "HTTPS" => "on"
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]