Bulgaria. Update of the grain harvest and export estimates

Bulgarian grain exports in 2022/23 to third countries (outside the EU) decreased, compared to the record of the previous season, but still remained high:

• wheat: 2.98 M mt (-12% from 2021/22 MY),
• barley: 103 K mt (-31%),
• corn: 693 K mt (+9%).

Exports from Bulgaria to EU countries for the entire 2022/23 season are not yet available. UkrAgroConsult estimates, taking into account intra-European flows, the total Bulgarian grain exports in 2022/23 may reach 5.5 M mt (+0.9 M mt from the previous estimate).

The increase in estimates is caused by the growing pace of grain shipments from Bulgaria in recent months, especially to Algeria and China. If Algeria is more interested in Bulgarian wheat, China buys corn from Bulgaria. And although China’s demand for corn declined from 2021, the corn imports from Bulgaria continues to grow. russia’s blockade of Ukrainian seaports contributed not least to this.

According to the June report of the JRC MARS Bulletin, there was some lag in the development of winter crops in the north of Bulgaria, but already in early July the national average NDVI improved, although the lack of precipitation and high temperatures (2-4 degrees above normal) during the July 10-20 again reduced the indicator to average values. Weather forecast for the coming week (July 24-29) is also disappointing – high daytime temperatures with an almost complete absence of productive rains.

July is critical for corn pollination, which requires rains, which, unfortunately, may not arrive. UkrAgroConsult previous estimate of the corn harvest was quite conservative, as some weather risks were expected. So UkrAgroConsult estimates of 2023 corn production in Bulgaria were not changed with possible their revising downward rather soon.

UkrAgroConsult raises wheat and barley harvest estimates as favorable weather have been in place for the ripening of winter crops. Harvesting of these crops is almost at the peak, although there is a lag y/y caused by late sowing and later development due to cooler 2023 spring weather.

Updated estimates of the grain harvest and exports in Bulgaria in 2023/24 MY are in a full version of this article.