Bulgaria. Uncertain prospects for rapeseed harvests in 2025-2026

The outcome of the 2023/24 season

• Rapeseed area is the lowest since 2009/10 – (-31% compared to 2022/23)
• Rapeseed harvest, 2023 – (-38% compared to 2022)
• Yield – (+8% y/y).
• Rapeseed exports declined in 2023/24 – (-48% compared to MY 2022/23). For the sixth consecutive season, almost 100% of rapeseed is exported within the EU, with small quantities going to Turkey.
• Domestic processing and export of rapeseed oil (RPO) increased due to rapeseed imports. The rapeseed imports increase the second season in a row.
• Domestic processing – (+55% compared to MY 2022/23).
• Rapeseed oil exports – (+326% compared to MY 2022/23).

Prospects for 2024/25 MY

• The 2024 rapeseed harvest (-15% compared to MY 2023/24) due to further decline in areas (-10%) and yields (-3.5%).
• Rapeseed exports will decrease by 23% by MY 2023/24. The market will traditionally be concentrated in the EU countries.
• Domestic processing will raise by 4% supported by growing imports.
• However, the main rapeseed suppliers to Bulgaria are also affected by the drought and are expecting a smaller rapeseed harvest, so supply will be limited.

Outlook for 2025/26

• Current European rapeseed prices are almost 16% higher y/y, supporting farmers’ rapeseed margins. Winter rapeseed sowing for the 2025 harvest started under moisture deficit.
• The market supposes, the rapeseed area for the 2025 (+10-15% by MY 2024/25).