Russia's grain export potential to decrease 20%

The harvest of major grains in Russia is entering the final straight, and weather conditions continue adjusting the country’s grain crop potential.

The wheat harvest is already roughly 87% complete. At the same time, UkrAgroConsult still sticks to its June forecast for the Russian wheat crop.

However, as the wheat harvest area dwindled by more than 700 Th ha (-2.6%) because of crop losses or cutting for forage, and due to a substantial wheat harvest delay in Siberia, we do not rule out the possibility of a slight wheat production decrease if farmers fail to fulfill the current harvest plan.

The barley harvest in Russia is already 93% complete. In view of an almost 20% year-over-year drop in barley yield in the course of harvesting, along with a decrease in the harvest area, UkrAgroConsult reduces its forecast for the Russian barley crop (down 15% from last year). At the same time, according to our estimates, Russia’s export potential may decrease by 30%.

Corn crop is expected to be the lowest in six years, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts note. Export potential may decrease by half.

Thus, given that Russia’s total grain crop will fall in 2018, export potential will go down by 20%.