Chinese demand for feed crops to continue into next season exports

Ukraine exported over 2.8 MMT of barley and 7.3 MMT of corn to China from the season’s beginning till April inclusive – more than 10 MMT combined. This already exceeds last season’s total by 59%, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Besides Ukraine, American corn shipments to China have jumped since the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal came into force in 2020 – the U.S.’s share closed the calendar year and Q1 2021 up at 38% and 52%.

As the season 2021/22 is drawing nearer, demand for new-crop grain increases. In May 2021 alone, China has already purchased more than 12 MMT of 2021/22-crop corn from the U.S. and, according to trade sources, another some 5 MMT from Ukraine. Such a rush caused a hike in forward price and narrowed the spread between forward and spot prices.

According to experts estimates, recovery in China’s pig inventories as well as efforts for raising domestic corn yields in order to replace the imported products may take a few seasons. Therefore, import of this crop should be expected to actively continue in MY 2021/22.