Consequences of trade war between China and Canada. Who is to benefit?

Until MY 2018/19, Canada was the main supplier of canola to China. However, Chinese importers started to sharply reduce canola purchases because of deteriorated relations between the two countries after Canadian police had detained the Huawei CFO on the request of the U.S. Consequently, imports for the entire season totaled just 2.6 MMT (-40% year-on-year). 

In MY 2019/20, China continues reducing canola purchases from Canada. In October-April imports decreased by -47% year-on-year. China’s share in Canadian exports slumped from 42% to 18%. 

Although Chinese buyers became less interested in Canadian canola, its exports are higher than last year. Canada exported 11% more of this commodity in October-April 2019/20 compared to the same period in MY 2018/19. The purchases increased mainly due to the EU and the UAE.

But Australia and Ukraine took advantage of this trade war.  

Australian canola production is expected to recover in MY 2020/21. Australia’s share in Chinese canola imports is expected to expand considerably. China began increasing purchases of Ukrainian rape oil and ended MY 2019/20 as its top importer (70% of total exports), UkrAgroConsult reports.