Black Sea Region: USDA estimates gradually nearing market ones

Ukraine. The forecasts for wheat production and exports in Ukraine were raised by 0.5 MMT, to 30 MMT and 21 MMT, respectively. The barley crop and export estimates were also upped, by 100 KMT – to 9.2 MMT and 5.2 MMT, respectively. The corn estimates were left unchanged from the previous report.

Russia. The forecast for Russia’s wheat crop was lowered to the level of market expectations – down 1 MMT from the previous forecast. USDA experts estimate the barley crop at 19.4 MMT (-0.4 MMT from the June forecast). At the same time, no adjustments were made to the wheat and barley export estimates.

The forecast for Russian corn production was also changed at the expense of a larger planted area: the crop and export estimates were raised by 0.5 MMT and 0.3 MMT, respectively.

Kazakhstan. The estimates of Kazakhstan’s wheat production and exports were cut by 1 MMT and 0.5 MMT, respectively. The barley export forecast was left unchanged.

Thus, the 2021/22 grain crop in the Black Sea region reduced by 0.74% from the June forecast, to 214.2 MMT, while export potential gained 0.35%, to 115.2 MMT, UkrAgroConsult reports.