MY 2020/21 turned out to be not the most productive for Ukrainian corn due to drought. The crop decline caused a drop in exports. The range of export destinations for Ukrainian corn also changed in MY 2020/21.
China became the top importer in MY 2020/21, with a 36% share. This country pressured traditional destinations such as the EU, Egypt, South Korea, Turkey, the UK and drove out some Southeast Asian importers.
MY 2021/22 will likely witness a revival in demand from the EU, which received less than desired from Brazil in MY 2020/21 due to record high prices and reduced supply.
From October to March, Ukraine will compete with the U.S. for demand from the main buyer, i.e. China. In its latest report, the USDA raised the outlook for China’s corn crop and lowered estimates for some corn uses. It is also worth reminding that the Chinese authorities have spoken out in favor of reducing import dependence and planned to partially replace corn with other grains and meals.
Therefore, the real outlook for Chinese demand remains an enigma for the entire agricultural market.
UkrAgroConsult’s analysts expect the range of export destinations for Ukrainian corn can be predicted to near its 2019/20 pattern.