USDA estimates for the Black Sea region came closer to market ones

Ukraine. USDA experts slightly lowered their estimate of the barley crop in Ukraine (by 0.3 MMT to 10.2 MMT), but it is anyway far above official harvest data published by the State Statistics Service (9.6 MMT). The figures for other crops were left unchanged.

Russia. As expected, the wheat crop in Russia was raised to a more realistic 74.5 MMT (+2 MMT from the previous estimate), but this estimate is anyway one of the lowest in the market. Wheat exports were increased to a lesser degree – by 1 MMT to 36 MMT – that is, on the contrary, an optimistic estimate in view of the current export tax on wheat. The changes also concerned the barley crop forecast, which was reduced by 0.3 MMT to 17 MMT.

Kazakhstan. The grain crop and export estimates for Kazakhstan were left unchanged.

Thus, the Black Sea grain crop in MY 2021/22 gained 0.7% from the previous forecast, to 203.3 MMT, while the estimate of export potential was raised by 0.9% to 114.1 MMT, UkrAgroConsult reports.