Forecast for Ukraine’s 2022 grain crop

According to the Ag Ministry’s estimate, 7.84 Ml ha was planted to winter grains as of late November, i.e. their area shrank by 4.6% from last year.

Unfortunately, no concrete information on crop conditions (with a clear breakdown by good/fair/poor) has been provided for a second consecutive year now. However, based on our data, it can be concluded that dry weather persisted throughout the planting season.

The prevailing weather situation at the time of planting greatly slowed down its pace, which only reached the five-year average in November.

Among all the factors influencing this season’s grain harvest in Ukraine, the following are worth to be pointed out separately:

1. unfavorable weather conditions at the time of fall planting that will affect the final harvest of wheat and barley,
2. a rapid rise in fertilizer prices that will influence planting intentions for spring crops (barley, corn in a negative way, and pulses in a positive way),
3. stable high demand in China for fodder crops of Ukrainian origin,
4. price growth in the world grain market.

Especially important for replenishing deep soil moisture would be gradual snow melting and effective spring precipitation. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult will continue monitoring the weather situation and adjust our forecasts accordingly.