USDA experts lowered their forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine

Ukraine. As expected, the USDA left unchanged its grain crop estimates for Ukraine in the new report. The corn and barley export forecasts also remain the same as before, but the estimate of Ukrainian wheat exports was slightly decreased (-0.2 MMT) because of intensifying competition from India, Australia and Argentina in the Asian market of coarse grains.

Russia. The production and export estimates for major grains in Russia were left unchanged.

Kazakhstan. The crop estimates for major grains were brought in line with the final data of Kazakhstan’s national statistics.

2021/22 wheat exports from Kazakhstan are expected at 7.3 MMT due to high demand (+0.1 MMT from the January estimate), while the barley export projection was cut by 100 KMT, to 700 KMT.

In addition, the wheat import estimate was raised from 1 MMT to 1.2 MMT amid active purchasing of Russian wheat.

So, the estimate of the Black Sea grain crop in MY 2021/22 reduced by 0.14% from the January forecast, to 208.5 MMT, and export potential by 0.17% to 115.6 MMT, UkrAgroConsult reports.