Turkey: 2022/23 MY oilseed market forecast

Military actions are key factor in expanding the SFS area for almost all producing countries to reduce imports dependence and to recover stocks.

Key factors for SFS imports increase:

• opening of SFS exports from Russia (SFS export tax expires on August 31)
• forecast of increased SFS production in Romania and Bulgaria
• record high SFS stocks in Ukraine.

Key risks for further imports growth:

• uncertainty in government regulation of SFS exports by Russia in 2022/23 MY
• unpredictable timing of Ukrainian seaports reopening
• Russia’s war against Ukraine, if continues, will lead to further changes in trade flows.