Ukraine: 2021/2022 rapeseed season is over – long live the new 2022/23 season

The rapeseed market has been the least affected by the hostilities, the largest export volume was seen in the first half of the 2021/22 season, when more than 98% of total exportable supplies were shipped abroad. The export share in the rapeseed crop exceeded 90%.

MY 2021/22 features relatively high rapeseed shipments in the war period, which became possible due to solving logistical problems, restoring and establishing new logistics chains amid available demand from EU countries.

Rapeseed export growth happened in April-June 2022, when the monthly export volumes exceeded the average in the previous three years: April – by 160%, May – by 274%, June – by 469%.

The key rapeseed importer – the EU – reduced its share to 67% (83% a year earlier) because of surged shipments to Pakistan (12% of total exports) and boosted purchases by Bangladesh.

As for 2022/23 season, the Ukrainian rapeseed market remains a hostage of the war:

• danger and unforeseen losses while harvesting
• domestic rapeseed price is 32% lower than last year
• low forward contracting amid the war and uncertainty
• logistics problems will lead to an unusually long export season
• the latest positive news about the negotiations on the “grain issue” gives hope for unblocking the ports, in which case rapeseed will be a priority export item
• prices of European importers fell back from their highs; the EU market currently consumes European rapeseed from the 2022 harvest. However, we expect demand from European importers to grow in November-December – this will be a bullish factor for Ukrainian rapeseed prices.