UkrAgroConsult updated forecast of Ukraine’s 2022 corn harvest

The 2022 summer weather was favorable for corn vegetation all over Ukraine but in Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr regions. These regions received less than normal precipitation in July and August.

In other regions of Ukraine optimal precipitation and adequately increasing soil moisture were registered. After July 15, this has improved the average NDVI in Ukraine. Currently, NDVI is above the long-term average.

UkrAgroConsult raises its corn yield estimates, but there are certain factors that keep us from too optimistic forecasts.

Moreover, the war caused a drop in domestic supply of fertilizers and pesticides while corn is more dependent on proper growing practices. This crop requires a greater quantity and variety of fertilizers and plant protection than barley or wheat. We suppose that this year farmers may have significantly saved on the application of inputs because of the hostilities and poor revenues/incomes.

At the same time, uncertainty persists about the corn area to be harvested: no information on the corn area is available from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine; cornfields in areas close to the war zone may suffer from shelling and fires, especially towards the final ripening stages when the green plants begin to dry up. Moreover, there is still a risk of a shortage of storage capacity, some fields may end up unharvested.

The corn harvest area was adjusted to the 4.22 Ml ha projected by the Agriculture Ministry.