Kazakhstan: Grain harvest and export outlook for the current season

The Agriculture Ministry of Kazakhstan, the end of October 2022: farmers harvested roughly 21.8 M mt of grains (up more than 33% y/y). Indeed, the summer weather conditions contributed to good yields (effective rain occurred in northern Kazakhstan in July). However, the above harvest figures may be somewhat overestimated.

The blockade of Ukrainian ports gave an impetus to grain exports from Kazakhstan, which grew rapidly from March 2022. From April 15 to September 10, wheat and wheat flour exports were limited by quotas that slowed down the previously fast pace of shipments. The export quotas were abolished before the scheduled date of September 30, after it had been found out early in the month that the crop was going to be large and the country was unlikely to face any grain shortage.

2022/23 Kazakhstan exports faced difficulties: railway collapse, severe competition posed by cheap russian grain, a build-up of milling capacities in neighboring countries. As a result, UkrAgroConsult continues adhering to rather conservative estimates of grain exports from Kazakhstan. We will keep monitoring the current export pace, the resolution of logistics problems and adjust our forecasts if the situation improves.