UkrAgroConsult’s first estimates of Ukraine’s 2023 oil seed harvest

In 2022/23, the fall in farming margins pushes Ukrainian farmers to implement a strategy of reducing production costs and expanding the area of the most profitable crops for the 2023 harvest.

Currently, the impact of each of these factors encourages significant savings in production costs.

The winter rapeseed area for the 2023 harvest is down 29% y/y after its expansion in 2021. Farmers sowed some 1 Ml ha, which is not a critical decrease for Ukraine. Growers are increasingly encouraged to plant oilseeds for 2023. The fall in winter rapeseed plantings in the south and north was partially offset by other regions of Ukraine.

Sunflower seed (SFS) is one of the most profitable crops. Since 2018, its average area has been exceeding 6.5 M ha for all Ukraine. SFS are is expected to increase by 10% from 2022. In addition, the expansion of sunflower plantings is driven by continued operation of crushers in the central and even southern regions of Ukraine thanks to vegoil exports renewal through the “grain corridor” and export shipments are rather active.

The western regions of Ukraine are usually the top soybean producers, and they are far from war-related risks. In 2022, farmers in the western regions expanded soybean areas by 10%. This trend continues in 2023. Soybean crushing industry is located in this more safe part of the country. UkrAgroConsult expects an increase in soybean crushing, this will back Ukrainian farmers’ incomes. In addition, the soybean area expansion is promoted by high European demand for soybeans, oil and meal.

In 2023, the total area under oilseeds will be up 5% y/y with an 11% harvest increase.