Ukraine. Grain exports forecast, 2022/23: re-routing of trade flows, geopolitical factors

In January, for the first time in the 2022/23 season, total export of cereals and legumes decreased. Previously, if grain harvest is successful, exports in January were often the higher compared to other months. This was explained by still sufficient domestic wheat and barley stocks with corn harvesting completion by January.

The main reason for the decrease in January export was the slowing down of inspections by russian representatives of ships aiming for loading with grain in the framework of the “grain agreement” at the Big Odesa ports.

As of February 20, grain exports in the 2022/23 totaled:

• almost 11 M t of wheat (-39% y/y);
• almost 2 M t of barley (-64% y/y);
• 7 M t of corn (-16% y/y).

In February, world grain trading intensified, new international tenders were opened to contract significant grain volumes (both milling and feed) with delivery in the coming spring. Foreign external demand growth was accompanied by higher shipments from the Big Odesa ports. UkrAgroConsult raises up its estimate of the export potential of Ukrainian wheat and barley in MY 2022/23.

Corn exports prospects from Ukraine are under pressure of a variety of factors. UkrAgroConsult’s estimate of corn exports with a detailed description of influencing factors can be found in the full version of the article.