Exciting changes in Ukrainian supply chains have just begun

As soon as the story of the bans on imports from Ukraine to Europe has been more or less resolved, the new-old topic of “doubts of extension of the grain corridor” is on the agenda.

The market divided into 2 camps: some believe the deal will not be extended, while others remain optimistic and expect the extension.

Smooth agricultural exports from Ukraine is becoming increasingly important ahead of the new season. Discussions during the EURO GRAIN HUB Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, April 26-28, 2023, promoted prospects and forecasts of grains and oilseeds exports from Ukraine in 2023/2024 season being more reliable.

The consensus forecast of the 2023 grains and oilseeds production 65 M mt against 69 M mt (- 4 M mt or 6%) in 2022/23. Oilseeds will be the clear favorites among farmers, their harvest is expected to increase by at least 2 M mt, while grains will lose at least 7 M mt.

The consensus forecast of the total grains and oilseeds exports in the next 2023/24 season is at 39 M mt (54 M mt in the 2022/23).

Although Ukraine is expected to see a significant decline in grain and oilseed exports, some fundamental factors and risks should be considered while developing the export strategy in 2023/24.