New season of 2023/24: the market should not expect a significant increase in high-oleic SFS harvest in Ukraine

Traditionally, the high-oleic SFS production varies from year to year. The HO SFS production, exports and carry over of the previous season have a great impact on the next marketing year.

The previous 2021/22 in Ukraine was challenging not only for the high-oleic segment, but also for other crops. Among the key factors:

• grain exports drop caused by the war in Ukraine;
• supply chains disruption, development of the new export routes;
• high carryover stocks of high oleic SFS;
• for most of the 2021/22 season, the HO premiums varied in the range of 500-600 UAH/mt, with the premiums increased in November and December 2021, along with rising SFS prices.

In 2022/23 MR, the sown area of high-oleic sunflower decreased by 43%, the harvest – by 49%, the export of high-oleic oil – by 33%.

The key challenges remain the war, the grain corridor instability, and now the ban on imports of agricultural goods from Ukraine to Eastern Europe, which will also affect the “high oil” market.

The forecasted high-oleic SFO exports in 2022/23 MY are 215 K mt.

• The forecast for 2023/24 is formed mainly by negative factors. However, the HO SFS area is expected to recover slightly under the influence of general trends of oilseeds area expansion (+8% by 2022/23 MY).

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