Kazakhstan: the grain market trends of 2022/23 season and harvest and export forecast for 2023/24

Officially reported total grain production-2022 was at 22 M mt (+34% from 2021), harvested areas amounted to 16 M ha (+7% y/y), average yield being of 1.36 tons/ha (+24%).

Grain production – 2022

• wheat: 16.4 M mt (+39%), 12.8 M ha (+7%), average yield of 1.28 t/ha (+30%);
• barley: 3.3 M mt (+39%), 2.2 M ha (+7%), average yield of 1.51 tons/ha (+30%).

Wheat and W. Flour Exports of 2022/23

Wheat exports, September 2022-May 2023 – more than 6 M mt (+22% compared to the same period last season,). This is an absolute record for this period, mainly as traditional buyers increased the imports:

• Uzbekistan: +40% to the same period last season,
• Tajikistan: +21%,
• Afghanistan: +64%.

Shipments of wheat to China increased 8 times to 175 K mt for 9 months of the 2022/23 season.

In 2022/23 MR, wheat flour production amounted to 3.31 M mt (+4% to the same period last season). Wheat flour export for September 2022-May2023 grew to 1.6M mt (+22% to the same period last season), similar to wheat exports, mainly because of increased demand from traditional importers:

• Afghanistan: +23% compared to the same period last season,
• Uzbekistan: +27%,
• Tajikistan: +6%.

Exports of flour to China also exceeded last season’s by 68%, but in terms of quantity, the flour export to China is still insignificant.