Ukraine. Will there be enough soybean seed next season?

In 2023, Ukraine harvested a record soybean crop.

In the first five months of 2023/24 (Sept. 2023 – Jan. 2024), soybean exports are the highest in the last four years. As of February 1, about 55% of projected exports have been shipped abroad.

Soybean crushing is expected to increase (+8% from 2022/23).

For the first five months of 2023/24, the export of soybean oil is the maximum in the last four years. As of February 1, almost 47% of the export potential has been exported.

In the first five months of 2023/24 the export of soybean meal is the maximum in the last four years. As of February 1, almost 37% of the export potential has been realized.

Ukraine remains a profitable SB supplier to the EU due to its territorial proximity.

The absence of EU restrictions on imports of soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal from Ukraine confirms the EU’s need for Ukrainian soybean products. This allows us to forecast the EU countries as the main export destination in the current season.

Margin calculations for early February leave soybeans among the most profitable crops. As a result, seed is sold out and farmer demand for soybean seed is not fully met. Therefore, the final soybean acreage will largely depend on the availability of additional seed supply in the coming weeks.