In the new season 2024\25, Ukraine will remain the leader in the global sunflower oil market

Ukraine and russia remain the key producers of sunflower and sunflower oil in the world. In 2022-2023, scenarios of Ukraine’s prospects and leadership in SFO market looked negatively. However, a more positive scenario is currently being realized.

According to the USDA, Ukraine’s share in the global SFO trade in 2023/24 will be almost 41%, and russia’s – 30%.

SFO exports (forecast, 2023/24):

• Ukraine – (-3% by 2022/23, higher exports are likely if temporary sea corridor efficient functioning);
• russia – (+10%, export increase 3 seasons at row).

For most of the 2023\24 season, the spread was positive for SFO prices compared to soybean and palm oil prices.

2024/25 Season

UkrAgroConsult forecast for Ukraine SFS harvest looks optimistic, based on an expansion of sown areas by 2.6%. If only average yields achieved, the 2024 SFS production will increase by 2%. The forecast for 2024/25 SFO exports is also not lower than in the current 2023/24.

russia not for the first time announces a reduction in the SFS sown areas in 2024 (-2% compared to 2023). It is likely that in the new season 2024\25 this scenario will come true, as farmers’ margins of soybeans, rapeseed  and flax are growing.