Vegetable oil market – A look into May-December 2024

The global soybeans oversupply remains a stable and constant factor keeping soybean and soybean oil prices stable, thereby increasing short-term pressure on other vegetable oils.

However, the bad weather in Argentina is unlikely to jeopardize global soybean supplies. Most likely, if the weather continues to be unfavorable, this could support soybean and soybean oil prices.

Crude oil. Crude oil price has continued to fall. The market is still focused on the situation in the Middle East.

Palm oil. Palm oil is waiting for crude oil prices to rise as this will increase biodiesel industry demand. Global palm oil production and exports are expected to increase as usual at this time of the year, which will affect prices.

Sunflower and Sunflower Oil. SFS stocks are low in the Black Sea&Danube region. In May-June, 2024, SFS crushing is expected to decrease, reducing SFO supply. This trend has not yet been taken into account by SFO buyers.

Vegetable oil stocks in India and other importing countries have reduced recently. Buyers are likely to intend to replenish their vegetable oil stocks by biger SFO purchases in the coming months, given the war risks of supply disruptions from Ukraine.

Market is forecasting a decrease in SFS and SFO supply in the upcoming 2024/25 season. The decline has not yet propped up vegetable oil prices, as it has been offset by high supplies of soybeans and soybean oil. Soy oil supply from Argentina will increase in the short term.