Wheat imports ban in Pakistan and impact on 2024/25 price trends

PAKISTAN. KEY TRENDS OF WHEAT MARKET  

Due to the floods, 2022 wheat harvest in Pakistan was only 26.2 M mt, while the consumption was 30 M mt. The country wheat imports increased starting from 2023. The 2023 harvest increased, but it was not enough to reduce wheat imports of 3.5 M mt. Finally this lead to unexpected rise of domestic wheat stocks up to 4.3 M mt.

For the 2024/25 season, Pakistan bans wheat imports and exports to stabilize the local market. According to USDA, this should be the first season in the last 5 years when Pakistan will not import wheat.

CONTRIBUTION OF PAKISTAN’S DEMAND TO THE BLACK SEA REGION EXPORTS

In 2023/24 MY Pakistan’s demand for wheat was satisfied mainly by the Black Sea countries. According to UkrAgroConsult, the country imported 3.53 M mt of the Black Sea wheat. For Ukraine, Pakistan became the top 6th buyer of wheat in 2023/24 season, and for russia, Pakistan was the 5th top buyer.

HOW WILL IT AFFECT PRICE BEHAVIOR IN 2024/25? 

The Bloomberg Grains Subindex is already the lowest since the Covid pandemic due to slowing grain demand and a relatively high harvest. In the 2024/25 season, lower wheat harvests in Ukraine and russia will be offset by better harvests in Argentina and Australia.