Ukraine. Barley supply is high, but prices are rising

After official plantings released, UkrAgroConsult updated barley 2024/25 S&D.

• Production – +0.1 M mt compared to the previous S&D estimate;
• Exports – +0.1 M mt.

Compared to 2023/24 season:

• barley crop reduced due to smaller areas and lower yields;
• export potential also reduced by 16%.

Harvesting rates. In 2024, harvest campaign started several weeks early and as of August 8, 97% of barley acreage were harvested. Harvesting rates are double that of the last 2 seasons. The average yield is 3.8 mt/ha, at the last 5 years average level, but is lower y/y.

World market. In the 2024/25 season, the exports of the world’s top 8 barley exporters will fall to the lowest level in the last 5 years down to 26.65 M mt. This will be mainly due to the crop decrease in Australia and Ukraine. Barley harvesting in Australia will start in October-November decreasing the shortage of barley supply.

China significantly reduces appetite to imports down to 10.2 M mt (-30% compared to 2023/24 MY). On the contrary, Iran and Saudi Arabia will increase their imports in the 2024/25 season. Global barley demand will decline from 30.5 M mt in 2023/24 MY to 27.5 M mt in 2024/25.