Rapeseed. The best strategy for Ukrainian farmers and crushers?

Ukraine almost completed rapeseed harvest.

UkrAgroConsult forecast of rapeseed 2024 harvest is based on our own estimate of rapeseed area (only 6.3% less y/y) and yield (-9.6% y/y). The 2024 rapeseed harvest is estimated by UkrAgroConsult (-21% y/y).

Exports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil and meal

In 2024/25 MY much more forward contracts were made compared with 2023. This is a positive trend for farmers and a sign of importers’ confidence in Ukraine as a reliable rapeseed supplier. Negative forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU also encouraged forward contracts making.

2024/25 MY started with high rapeseed exports due to early harvest:

• Almost 278 K mt were exported in July (+15% y/y, the highest level in the last five years);
• As of August 21, rapeseed exports amounted to 629 K mt (+34% yoy, total August exports estomates at more than 700 K mt).

July exports of rapeseed oil (-55% y/y) and rapeseed meal (-40%).

Price behavior. Domestic prices were driven in July-August by exporters’ demand and farmers’ reluctance to sell in anticipation of price increases. The farmers’ tactic worked, but only for a short time.  Obligations under export contracts made prices rise. However, the trend changed after the price drop in the EU.