Ukraine vs Russia. Confrontation in the sunflower oil market

The USDA final estimates of the SFS crop in 2023/24 season were increased due to higher yields:

• Ukraine – 15.5 M mt (+27% compared to MY 2022/23);
• Russia – 17.1 M mt (+5%, a record).

SFO exports

• Ukraine – (+9% by MY 2022/23, recovering from the failure since the beginning of the war to the second record high);
• Russia – (+10%, three consecutive seasons of export growth).

The growth of SFO production and exports is based on the increase of SFS harvests in both countries, and for Ukraine also on the stable sea corridor operation.

Shifts in SFO export destinations, 2022-2024

• EU turned into top export destination for Ukraine, India – for Russia;
• Turkey expanded SFO imports from Ukraine at expense of Russia;
• India and China, continue to increase imports from Russia.

KEY TRENDS of 2024/25 MY. The new MY 2024/25 will face SFS deficit. According to September USDA, global SFS production will be 50.6 M mt (-10% compared to MY 2023/24). It is the lowest in the last four seasons due to bad weather.

SFS harvest in Ukraine and Russia, USDA Sept. fugures

• Ukraine – 12.5 M mt (-19% compared to MY 2023/24);
• Russia – 16.0 M mt (-6%).

Ukraine share in total world SFO exports will decrease to 41% vs. 42% in MY 2023/24. The SFS harvest forecast for Russia is quite optimistic.