Rapeseed market under tariff attack

Canada:

• In October 2024, Canada introduced a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from China.
• In December 2024, Canada announced plans to extend tariffs to Chinese solar panels and critical minerals in early 2025, and to semiconductors, permanent magnets, and natural graphite in 2026.

China:

China will impose tariffs on over CAD $2.6 B of agricultural and food products since March 20 and include:

• 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil, cakes and peas
• 25% tariff on seafood and pork

The US tariffs on Canada since February 2025 exacerbates the negative impact on the global canola market.

The escalation of trade tensions will impact significantly the global market for canola seed, oil and meal, as Canada, the US and China are key players in these markets.

Canada accounting for 42% of world canola exports, 52% in the canola oil market, and 59% in the canola meal exports.

In the past, Canada and China have had disputes over canola. In 2019, China suspended imports from Canada, citing phytosanitary reasons, but this was most likely a political reaction to some Canadian decisions.

The consequences of this canola war were very significant:

• Canadian canola exports to China fell by 70% in 2019.
• Canola prices in Canada fell by 10-15% due to the loss of a major market.
• Large canola surpluses in the domestic market.
• Farmers began to reduce canola acreage and look for alternative crops (barley, wheat, flax).

It took Canada several years to regain China’s share of canola exports. Now China has imposed import tariffs on canola oil and meal, but it will have a similar effect.

Most likely, we will have the traditional end to all tariff wars – negotiations, mutual concessions on trade issues, and diplomatic agreements – but the extent of the consequences will depend on how quickly the traditions are in place.