Global wheat market 2025/26: Ukraine faces trade barriers

Wheat: output up, but so is trade – is there room for Ukraine?

In May, the USDA first outlook for the 2025/26 grain season is setting new market narratives. This is break down the key drivers and risks shaping prices — especially for the Black Sea region.

Global wheat production is expected to rise, mainly thanks to better yields in the EU after last year’s drought. But it is not bearish so clear — global trade is projected to expand, absorbing a good part of the new supply. As a result, ending stocks will rise only modestly.

However, the real threat for Ukrainian wheat is not the crop, but the EU planning to slash Ukraine’s duty-free quotas. Ukraine wheat exports are facing new costs and possible shifts in export flows. This could dull the competitive edge of Ukrainian origin — particularly for feed-quality shipments — just as exporters gear up for the post-harvest campaign.

Corn: Bulls Watching Beijing

The corn story looks more bullish. Global production is set to rise, largely on increased US acreage and yields. However, position of China is still unclear. While Chinese output is flat, demand is climbing, pushing domestic stocks lower.

USDA pegs China’s corn imports at up to 10 M mt (+25% y/y) — a clear sign that Beijing will be active importer in the 2025/26, likely looking to diversify origin. This opens the door for competitive Black Sea corn — if logistics and politics do not get in the way.

USDA forecast of Ukraine’s corn crop (in line with UkrAgroConsult’s view: 26–31.5 M mt) suggests a sharp rebound y/y, with export potential rising to 24 M mt (+10%). This is a decent upside driver for 2025 crop pricing, especially if Chinese purchases increase in Q4 2025.

USDA, May 2025: Comparison of the Black Sea countries grain production and exports estimates, M mt