Ukraine. Rapeseed market 2025. Pessimism becomes the base case

Ukraine’s 2025 rapeseed harvest outlook is shifting from cautious to outright pessimistic. The pessimistic scenario is quickly becoming the central one — and the market is adjusting accordingly.

Despite May rains replenishing soil moisture, they also disrupted field operations — and it may be too little, too late for a crop already hit by last autumn drought and May frosts.

UkrAgroConsult revised its 2025 rapeseed harvest forecast, the weakest harvest in four years.

Weather: A Blessing and a Curse

While May rainfall finally was significant, especially in central and southern Ukraine, frequent showers are now preventing farmers from applying crop protection, putting disease into play.

Key issues include:

• Yield potential downgrade
• UkrAgroConsult increased rapeseed area losses, as poor fields were replanted with other crops.
• Logistical disruption

Market Reaction: Farmers Pull Back, Prices Heat Up

The Road Ahead: More Risk, More Volatility