Ukraine crop watch: Rapeseed risk lingers

Rapeseed suffered more than grains due to autumn drought and spring frosts. Early pessimistic estimates pointed to a drop to 2.7 MMT, with some farmers considering replanting with corn or sunflower.

However, favorable May weather helped recovery of weaker fields, and many farmers decided to stick with rapeseed, additionally supported by attractive prices. As a result, replanting areas may end up smaller than initially feared.

Weather models now indicate hot and dry conditions in the next two weeks, raising yield risk for both wheat and rapeseed. The downward revision of the June forecasts not excluded in July after reports of June weather risks are known.