Ukrainian rapeseed: Between margins, declining crop & tariffs

Summary of the 2024/25 rapeseed season

Global 2024 rapeseed output plunged by 4.4 M mt; the EU lost 3 M mt and Ukraine 1 M mt, down to 3.7 M mt

Ukraine

The 2024/25 RS exports dropped 16 % y/y to 3.1 M mt, crushing reverted to average level of 0.5 M mt (13–15 % of supply) from nearly 1 M mt the prior season.

Oil and meal exports each stood at 210 K mt.

The EU was key export destination in 2024/25

2025/26 outlook

Weather in Ukraine damaged significantly rapeseed yields (drought, frost, heat, other). RS harvesting began late, the harvesting progress lags behind y/y (harvested by 64% less by mid-July), the yield is low – 1.62 mt/ha (-25%).

UkrAgroConsult estimates of 2025 RS harvest are going down, the scenario is close to 2020/21 season. Therefore, 2025 RS harvest in Ukraine UkrAgroConsult reduced to 2.7-2.8 M mt.