UkrAgroConsult updates Ukraine harvest forecast: Sunflower affected by drought, corn shows optimistic results

According to the forecast by UkrAgroConsult, due to dry conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine, the sunflower seed harvest estimate for August 2025 has been revised from 14.1 to 13.3 mln tons. Losses are primarily observed in the southern and eastern regions, where drought has significantly impacted crops. In contrast, the northern and western regions, with regular rainfall, present a more favorable situation. Sunflower seed yields are expected to improve as harvesting progresses to the northwestern belt, as seen with wheat and barley. Market estimates for the sunflower seed harvest range from 12.8 to 13.5 mln tons, with UkrAgroConsult’s forecast leaning toward the upper limit, attributed to expanded sown areas in the west and north since the onset of the war. However, seed quality raises concerns due to diseases caused by rainfall during harvesting in these regions.

For corn, UkrAgroConsult reports optimistic prospects. The main growing regions have sufficient moisture levels, and southern plantings constitute a minor share. This year’s pollination and grain-filling period coincided with more favorable temperatures compared to the previous year, with periodic rains supporting crop development. Market estimates for the corn harvest range from 28 to 35 mln tons, but in late July, UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast by 2 mln tons to 32.5 mln tons, one of the highest projections on the market.

The wheat harvest forecast by UkrAgroConsult remains steady at 22 mln tons. As of August 7, nearly 15 mln tons have been harvested from 74% of the sown area. The remaining 26% corresponds to regions with the highest yields, providing grounds for optimism.