Ukraine oilseed market trends, August 2025

Ukraine: oilseed s&d, 2024/25, Aug 2025

Market scenarios

• The 2025/26 season issue is re-routing from oilseed exports to higher product exports – if the export duty regime comes into force.
• Competitiveness may be driven by higher supply of Ukrainian SFO and oilseed meals.
• If SB and RPS export duties take effect, domestic crush margins improve and capacity use rises with lower unit costs.
• Risks – weather may decrease SFS oil content/quality in the South/East.

Weather split Ukraine by two parts

• South and East face heat and drought, cutting yield potential
• North and West have enough moisture, but rains risk quality via high moisture and disease
• Biggest rain exposure is in sunflower and soybean