Wheat prices fall, competition heats up – Early 2025/26 market drivers

Harvest 2025

Ukraine completed wheat harvest on 5.0 M ha out of 5.16 M ha, collecting 21.9 M mt with average yield 4.37 mt/ha. Yields stayed close to the 5-year average but below recent highs. Prolonged rains slowed cutting and hurt quality. Larger area saved the 2025 crop size – harvest is near 22 M mt, same as 2024/25. Share of milling wheat is about 45% vs. 50% y/y – raising risk of a shortage for domestic flourmills and sparking stronger competition with exporters.

Exports to EU

EU gives Ukraine a duty-free quota of 758 K mt for Jun–Dec. 2025. July-Aug wheat exports to the EU were 337 K mt, leaving 421 K mt for the next 4 months. USDA pegs EU import at 6.5 M mt in 2025/26 (less 39% vs. 2024/25). Ukrainian wheat will face fierce competition in oversupplied global market.

Other key flows

Egypt cut wheat imports 30% in Jan–Jun 2025 to 4.9 M mt but USDA still indicate record 13 M mt for 2025/26. Latest tender: 200 K mt French + smaller parcels from Romania and Ukraine. russia is coming back: 1.7 M mt wheat exported in July, 3 M mt expected in Aug, incl. 700 K mt shipped to Egypt.