Corn 2025/26 — Where Will Ukrainian Tonnes Go

Turkey, the biggest uncertainties 

Turkey purchased a quarter of all Ukrainian corn exports, but in 2025/26 Turkish demand may drop significantly. USDA estimates Turkey’s 2025/26 corn imports at 3.3 M mt, sharply by 2.5 M mt lower vs. 2024/25.

Turkey corn production is higher in 2025.  Competition from russia is intensifying – russian larger corn harvest makes russian CIF Marmara offers more aggressive.

European Union

Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium – will be core buyers.

EU corn output estimated as lower y/y (58 M mt vs. 60 M mt in 2024), feed deficit persists, Italy and Spain will cover the deficit by possibly growing imports. The market is competitive after EU opened wider to North/South America corn imports; the EU GMO policy shifts keep US and later South America in the EU. Danube and Ukraine deep-sea logistics may be turned into a decisive factor in the competition.

MENA

Egypt bought 1.6 M mt in 2024/25 despite FX stress. If Egypt Gov’t stabilizes import financing, Ukraine can hold or add share in the imports.

Asia

Until 2022, China was one of the top buyers of Ukrainian corn. In 2020, it imported more than 8 M mt, nearly one-third of the total. In 2024/25, China’s total imports fell to a minimum due to a large crop and stocks. China also did not purchase Ukrainian corn last season.

In 2025/26 China’s total corn imports may recover to 10 M mt from all origins, but Ukraine’s share is uncertain.

South Korea corn buyers intend to diversify suppliers. S. Korea already bought 0.82 M mt of corn in 2025/26 and can add if parity works. Japan is conservative in importing US corn, but open to test lots with strong specs and reliable delivery time.

SE Asia demand also grows in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines. Prices against Brazil/Argentina is the key driver of Ukrainian corn exports to these countries.