Ukraine. Soy: 2024/25 wrap & 2025/26 forecast

Soybean season of 2024/25

• Soy area – (+40% y/y)
• Yield – (-6% y/y)
• Crop – (+33%) — record

Soybean exports – (+28%); 59% of crop (vs 61% in 2023/24).

Soy oil and meal exports, 2024/25

Domestic crush was 2.55 M mt, higher vs. 2023/24.  Stable trend toward increasing domestic crushing. Crushers are successfully competing with exporters for soybeans in the domestic market.

• Soy oil – (+52%).
• Soymeal exports – (+95%).

Soybean 2025/26 season

Duty shock (from Sep 4, 10% duty on SB) — fast market re-writing

• Soybeans exports fell: 41.3 K mt on Sep 3-16 vs 92.6 K mt a year ago (-51.3 K mt)
• Products surged over duty window (Sep 3-16):
• Soy oil – increase from 5 to 18.0 K mt (+14.5 K mt)
• Soy meal – from 2 up to 55.9 K mt (+48.7 K mt)
• Crushers are winners: (better margin, easier origination). Traders rely more on SBO and meal.

Although exports are still restricted, the market is adapting. SB were redirected to processing plants. Due to the drop in exports, crushers lowered the price, replenished SB stocks, and increased processing.

As it became clear that the soy export restrictions would continue, export shipments increased somewhat. Currently, sellers are responsible for paying the 10% duty.