Will early 2026 Venezuela events affect the Black Sea region’s agri exports?

The market reacted neutrally to political events in Venezuela. The country is not a large agricultural producer – the main consumption crops are corn, wheat and rice.

Wheat consumption is estimated at 1.5 M mt. Since Venezuela is not wheat producer, imports are duty free.   Canada remains the main wheat supplier, the USA is increasing its exports to Venezuela in the 2024/25 season. Turkey and Russia are the biggest wheat suppliers to Venezuela from the Black Sea region. In the 2024/25 season, Turkey`s share significantly dropped down to 150 K mt.   Russia also lost its position in this market in the 2024/25 season.

In the 2025/26 season, wheat exports to Venezuela most likely will be shared mainly between the USA and Canada with likeliness of serious decline in the Canada’s share.

About 80% of the Venezuela corn is white corn for human nutrition. In the 2025/26 season, corn imports are expected to increase due to a lower domestic production in 2025 and an increase in demand for yellow corn from the poultry sector.

The main suppliers of yellow corn are the USA, Brazil and Argentina. Corn exports are distributed among three global exporters that are neighbors of Venezuela. Therefore, the redistribution of supply between them does not affect the export of Ukrainian corn, as the main player in the Black Sea region.

In the short term, the events between US and Venezuela will be more influential for the agricultural markets of the Western Hemisphere. The US will likely to intend to be the central grain and other commodities supplier to the country. In the Black Sea region, changes likely to touch Russia – the loss of the market for wheat and mineral fertilizers.