Ukraine 2026/27 wheat: Strong export potential, but prices remain under pressure

Ukrainian wheat exports unexpectedly strengthened at the end of the 2025/26 marketing year, supported by increased demand from Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia. This rebound helped offset the weaker export performance seen during most of the season, which was affected by the EU’s reintroduction of import restrictions and lower purchases from Spain.

According to UkrAgroConsult, Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat crop is projected at around 23 M mt, while export potential could exceed previous year due to substantial carry-in stocks. However, these large inventories are also expected to weigh on prices at the start of the new season, particularly as favorable crop prospects across the entire Black Sea region increase supply expectations.

At the same time, the decline in new-crop wheat prices has paused as farmers remain reluctant to make significant forward sales. Additional support for Ukrainian exports could come from potential delays in Russian shipments caused by diesel fuel shortages and logistical challenges. If Ukrainian logistics continues to operate efficiently, wheat exports in August–September may exceed current expectations and generate better margins than the market currently anticipates.