Bulgarian wheat in early 2026/27: Harvest begins, the market is not bearish up to now

Last year, the first harvest results started from much higher yields, close to 8.0 mt/ha. Market immediately noticed this gap. However, these are only the reports of the first harvest days. The real picture for Bulgarian 2026 wheat yields will be more reliable in 2-3 weeks. Over the last three years, Bulgarian wheat yields fluctuated within 5.5-5.8 mt/ha.

The autumn 2025 wheat sowing campaign was delayed. Farmers relied on a favorable winter and planted wheat later than usual. Unlike several neighbouring countries, Bulgaria avoided severe spring drought. After good overwintering, winter wheat conditions were positive with good yield potential. Crop tours indicate potential yields above 6.5 mt/ha.

UkrAgroConsult kept its June forecast more conservative, at 5.6 mt/ha. This cautious estimate reflects weather risks during the harvesting.

Weather becomes the main risk. Hot weather is also affecting Bulgaria. In the coming days, highest temperatures are expected at +32…+38°C. The weather over Bulgaria may shift in the first decade of July. With the arrival of cooler air, the probability of rainfall and thunderstorms will increase. Temperatures may fall 4-8°C below the normal level for early July.

At the start of July, Bulgarian wheat is supported by several global factors for wheat-exporting countries.

In spring, the market focused mainly on high carry-in stocks and good new-crop prospects. Now forecasts are revised lower, almost of all wheat exporting countries.

The market in the coming months looks relatively friendly for Bulgarian wheat.