Ukrainian rapeseed becomes key to the European market

Global rapeseed production has increased amid rising demand, from 75.0 M mt in 2020/21 to nearly 100.0 M mt in 2026/27. However, rapeseed exports continue to fluctuate, largely within the 18-20 M mt range. This does not mean that processing countries have have increased their own production. In fact, exporting countries have shifted their exports from raw rapeseed to processed products.

Based on the analysis of the current state of local rapeseed markets, the July USDA report appears to lag behind market realities. Rapeseed harvesting has started in the Black Sea region. Market participants therefore need to consider current local market developments when planning their activities for the 2026/27 season. The European Union is the main destination market for rapeseed from the Black Sea region, depending not only on Ukrainian supplies but also on imports from Australia and Canada.

In recent days, the rainy weather has caused significant losses to Canadian farmers. Severe flooding and excessive moisture are leading to damage to planted areas. Therefore, maintaining the forecast for Canadian canola production at 22 M mt looks highly optimistic. China and the European Union are showing interest in Canadian canola.

As a result of the reduction in Canadian canola production and export potential, China may replace its import supplies with deliveries from Australia. Supplies of rapeseed from Australia and Ukraine remain alternatives for the EU.

However, the following factors affect Australia:

• A growing focus on domestic rapeseed processing and exports of processed products.
• Gradual recovery of trade relations and expanding market access to China.
• The potential impact of adverse weather patterns on the 2026/27 crop yield.

According to analytical agencies, the forecast for rapeseed production in the European Union is 20.0-20.5 M mt, in line with last year’s level.

However, heatwaves in Europe continue to affect rapeseed crops. Market participants are already assessing possible crop losses and the export potential of rapeseed across European local markets.

Thus, as the harvest campaign progresses, the market may see further downward revisions of European crop estimates. Amid difficulties faced by distant exporters, Ukraine appears to be the most suitable option for balancing the European rapeseed and processed products markets.

The July USDA report optimistically raised the forecast for rapeseed production in russia to 6.4 M mt. At the same time, a critical situation is developing in the Siberian Federal District, where 1.5 M ha of the total 2.5 M ha of rapeseed planted area are concentrated. Market participants are already bracing for a lower rapeseed crop due to damage caused by pests.

An even greater threat could be the loss of the Chinese rapeseed oil market. If processing plants fail to confirm compliance with non-GMO requirements and are excluded from the CIFER registry, a surplus of rapeseed supply will emerge in the domestic market. Globally, China and Europe are the main importers of rapeseed oil. The European market remains closed to russian rapeseed and processed products, so a possible collapse in the russian market will not affect Ukrainian and European rapeseed markets.