UkrAgroConsult raises Ukraine’s grain harvest forecast to 64.3 mln tons

UkrAgroConsult has raised its forecast for Ukraine’s grain and pulse production in the 2026/27 season to 64.3 mln tons following the release of official sowing area data, which exceeded previous expectations. The main upward revision concerns corn and barley. Overall grain and pulse production is expected to be 2.7 mln tons higher than in 2025, supported by expanded planted area and favorable weather conditions that have created strong yield potential.

The largest upward revision was made for barley. As of July 27, more than half of the planted area had been harvested, with the average yield reaching 4.42 tons/ha, creating the conditions for a record crop this season. The highest yields have been recorded in southern regions, which account for the largest share of the expected increase in production.

However, a larger harvest does not necessarily guarantee stronger exports. Due to constraints in maritime logistics, barley, as a niche export crop, depends more heavily on the operation of Black Sea ports than wheat or corn. With limited export logistics capacity, priority is traditionally given to shipping wheat and corn, while an increasing share of the barley crop is expected to remain on the domestic market.