Global flax market changes leader as Kazakhstan replaces Russia in the EU

Global oilseed flax production remains high for the second consecutive season, while Kazakhstan may become the world’s largest producer in MY 2026/27. At the same time, higher EU tariffs on Russian flax are sharply reducing its competitiveness and redirecting European imports toward Kazakhstan and other suppliers. Kazakhstan’s share of EU imports has already increased to 47%, while Russia’s share has fallen to 6%.

Kazakhstan. The country is becoming the main beneficiary of structural changes in flax trade due to its production scale, competitive prices and access to both the EU and Chinese markets. Its key limitation remains the long landlocked supply chain. Further expansion of supplies is most promising in Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.

Ukraine. Ukraine cannot yet compete with Kazakhstan in terms of volumes, but it has advantages in geographical proximity to the EU, supply flexibility and the potential to compete on quality. The most realistic scenario is a gradual increase in production and deliveries to European markets previously supplied largely by Russia. To achieve this, acreage expansion should be accompanied by investment in logistics, storage, conditioning and traceability.

The displacement of Russian flax from the EU is a long-term structural change that creates new opportunities for Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Kazakhstan is strengthening its position as the major large-scale supplier, while flax could become a promising niche crop and diversification tool for Ukraine, provided that production growth is accompanied by infrastructure development.