Ukraine’s record wheat yield meets a narrow export corridor

Southern Ukraine delivers an unexpected yield recovery. Better-than-expected results in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions were among the main reasons for the national production upgrade.

The improvement is particularly important because southern Ukraine normally faces unstable rainfall and high drought exposure.

Export performance remains weak. Ukraine exported 2.7 M mt of wheat during the first three months of MY 2026/27 (July-Sept), down 42% y/y. Deep-water exports from the Greater Odesa ports were effectively blocked since mid-July. August shipments fell to only 613 K mt. Alternative logistics recovered in September, lifting exports to around 1 M mt, but available export capacity will face growing competition from corn and oilseeds during October-December.

Exports are also more concentrated on Mediterranean destinations because longer routes to Asia are increasingly expensive.