Ukraine to close this 2018/19 season with record soybean stocks

In the new 2018/19 season, Ukraine’s market of soybeans operates in line with new VAT refund rules. These rules say that only the soybean growers are eligible for soybean export VAT refunds. There were numerous controversies and coordinating efforts among all market participants. Seemingly, common points have been found and amendments have been made, the season is already nearing its halfway point, but traders still hope to “reconquer” the right to VAT refund.

Back before the beginning of the marketing year, it was clear that the market would not avoid transformation. At the same time, the first forecasts were extremely conservative.

In present, UkrAgroConsult can already point out the trends and interim results of the current 2018/19 season:

- in the five months (September-January), soybean exports plummeted by more than 38%;

- soybean crushing in September-November were up 19.3% year-on-year.

According to UkrAgroConsult’s forecasts, despite more active trading in the latter half of the current season, this marketing year will end with significant soybean stocks and a heavy balance.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils” by UkrAgroConsult.

Analytical report "Black Sea Vegoils" contains detailed analysis of the latest trends in oilseeds/vegoils/meals exports, palm oil imports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop as well as crop conditions and progress in planting/harvesting in the countries of Black Sea Region.