Ukraine. Prospects of 2019/20 oilseed season

(Based on materials of XVI International Conference “BlackSeaGrain – 2019”, Julia Garkavenko, Oilseedmarket expert, UkrAgroConsult)

Traditionally, winter rape in many respects determines the planting structure of late oilseed crops. Ukrainian farmers considerably expanded winter rape plantings for the 2019 harvest that happened for a third straight year, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Post-winter crop condition is one of the best in several years, a new production record is possible.

In view of the bumper crop, crush is expected to continue rising and rapeseed exports will likely hit a record high.

Apart from supplies to the EU, Ukraine has every chance to open up another important destination for its rapeseed exports: China. The reason is that because of a new trade war, this time on Canada, China will look for alternative suppliers of the commodity. So, Ukraine looks the most attractive option.

The most predictable situation is observed in the sunflower seed segment. The market is overheated with records and the situation requires a slowdown. It is very probable that sunflower plantings for the 2019 harvest will also decrease.

In long-term outlook, taking into account a rapeseed margin decrease, the new VAT refund regulation for rapeseed exports and a continued adaptation period for soybeans, Ukraine will see no new records for at least 2-3 years.